9 proprietary ratings. 25 years of validation.
One mission: measure what Wall Street won't measure—
the statistical probability and magnitude of stock price changes.
Every rating we produce is built on a simple premise: the relationship between a stock's price and its underlying value is measurable.
When that relationship becomes distorted, the probability of future price change increases.
We don't predict prices. We measure probabilities. There's a profound difference. When we rate a stock "F", we're not saying it will fall.
We're saying historical data across thousands of similar situations shows an elevated probability and magnitude of loss.
"The price alone is not what's material—it's how price relates to a company's historical valuation.
When that relationship becomes distorted, we can measure the probability and magnitude of its reversion."
— Ray Mullaney, Founder
Every rating is documented, timestamped, and traceable. Fiduciaries can cite our analysis as independent third-party validation.
Our ratings quantify statistical probability based on historical patterns across decades of data—not analyst opinions about future events.
No investment banking fees. No advertising revenue from funds. Our only business is selling ratings that work.
We publish our validation methodology and results. We welcome third-party audits. We don't hide behind "proprietary black boxes."
Each rating measures a distinct dimension of risk.
Together, they provide a complete picture of a company's risk profile.
A measure and rating of the statistical probability and magnitude of a stock's future price changes.
A measure of a company's liquidity, financial strength, and durability.
A rating of both the financial condition and valuation of a stock.
Measures risk across four core dimensions—solvency, valuation, profitability, and tangible equity—to quantify the overall probability and magnitude of loss.
Indicates whether valuation is low, middling, or high relative to its past.
Evaluates short-term financial flexibility using objective liquidity ratios such as the current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio.
Assesses the company's underlying financial strength by examining balance-sheet quality, leverage, and stability of financial resources.
Measures the consistency and resilience of revenues, margins, and business performance over time.
Quantifies the statistical relationship between current valuation metrics and long-term fundamentals to estimate downside risk and potential valuation compression.
We use objective data only: SEC filings (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow) plus market price history. No forecasts, estimates, or analyst adjustments.
We standardize the raw filings and compute a consistent set of measures that reflect financial condition and valuation (for example: liquidity, leverage, profitability, tangible equity, and valuation multiples).
Each company is evaluated primarily against its own long-term profile. We focus on what's normal for that business over time, so the rating reflects the company's reality, not a generic template.
Our 9 ratings translate today's conditions into standardized numeric scores that are comparable across companies and time. Because the scoring is consistent, we can run separate ERS analyses using those scores to study historical frequencies and typical outcome ranges (including downside risk) for similar rating profiles.
Scores are calculated as number grades from +150 (best) to -250 (worst), then converted into letter grades (A+ through F) for clarity. Ratings are updated daily, and they refresh whenever new data is added to our database.
Choose any 2 of our 9 proprietary ratings. Submit them to McKinsey, PwC, or Deloitte for independent verification under strict NDA. We'll cooperate fully.
We don't hide behind "proprietary black boxes." Our methodology is documented, our validation is transparent, and our results are auditable. That's what independence means.
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