The Portfolio Analyzer™ provides users with ERS’s proprietary risk and performance ratings. Enter a list of stock symbols, and our tool will provide ERS’s proprietary ratings for each, along with data about their efficacy over the past 10 years.
Method One
- Click the “Upload a CSV” button on the Portfolio Analyzer interface.
- Click the “Browse” button and find a CSV file from your computer to upload.
- Ensure the file includes a column labeled “Symbol” or “Ticker” with stock symbols listed under it.
- After selecting the file, click the green “Go” button.
- The Portfolio Analyzer will bring you to the Stock Table page and process your stock list.
Method Two
- Click the “Enter Tickers” button on the Portfolio Analyzer interface.
- In the input box that appears, type or paste your list of stock symbols.
- Ensure the symbols are separated by spaces and/or commas (e.g., AAPL, MSFT TSLA).
- After selecting your stocks, click the green “Go” button.
- The Portfolio Analyzer will bring you to the Stock Table page and process your stock list.
Method Three
- Scroll to the bottom of the screen to find your 6 most recent saved lists of stocks.
- Click on the list you want to revisit.
- The Portfolio Analyzer will load your selected stock list and redirect you to the Stock Table page.
- If you have more than 6 saved lists, click the “View All Lists” button.
- A modal will appear, displaying all your saved lists.
- Select the desired list from the modal, and the Portfolio Analyzer will load it as usual.
Reading Stock Data
When using the Portfolio Analyzer to review investment data, it is important to understand the information presented in the output table. Here’s a guide to reading the table, which is organized from left to right with the following columns:
- Stock Symbol: The unique series of letters assigned to each publicly traded company.
- Company Name: The full name of the company associated with the stock symbol.
- Stock Price: The price of the stock as of the close of the previous trading day.
- Market Cap: The total value of a company’s outstanding shares, calculated as share price multiplied by the number of shares.
- Beta: A measure of a stock’s volatility relative to the overall market, often represented by a benchmark index like the S&P 500. A beta of 1 indicates that the stock moves in line with the market, while a beta greater than 1 suggests higher volatility and risk, and a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility. Investors use beta to assess a stock’s risk level in comparison to the broader market and to help inform portfolio diversification and risk management strategies.
The next five columns present the metrics and proprietary stock risk ratings used by the Portfolio Analyzer to calculate the Probability Guidance in column 11. ERS’s proprietary stock risk ratings are a crucial part of the analysis, offering an advanced gauge of potential risk associated with each stock. Each rating ranges from 0 to 100, where a rating of 0 indicates very low risk and a rating of 100 indicates very high risk.
- Price Risk Indicator™ (PRI™): A measure and rating of the statistical probability and magnitude of a stock’s future price changes.
- Equity Risk Indicator™ (ERI™): A ratings of both the financial condition and valuation of a stock.
- Fiduciary Risk Rating™ (FRR™): A robust and trustworthy statistical rating system that alerts fiduciaries to the substantial risks of loss in a company’s stock, regardless of its market popularity.
- Price to Sales: The ratio of a company’s total market capitalization to its trailing-12-month revenues. In other words, the Price to Sales is the price an investor must pay for each dollar of the company’s revenues.
- Valuation Metric 1 (V1): A metric which assesses a company’s current Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio by comparing it to its historical 1-year and 5-year P/S ranges. This metric helps identify whether the company’s valuation is near historic highs, lows, or averages, providing insight into its relative attractiveness for investment.
The 11th and last column, Probability Guidance, compares the effectiveness of 5 of ERS’s proprietary ratings and metrics to identify which is most effective at determining the optimal times to buy a stock.
The Guidance assigns a rating to the selected stock based on the most effective rating or metric.
Ratings range from A to E: A or B suggests a high potential for gains, while D or E indicates a high potential for losses.
A rating of C signifies that the company’s current conditions do not strongly suggest either buying or selling.
Saving or Changing a Portfolio List
- Add or Remove a Stock
- To add a stock to your portfolio, click the “Add Stock” button in the top-left corner, type the symbol of the stock you want to add, and then click “Go”.
- To remove a stock, simply click the “X” button on the left side of the row for that stock.
The buttons in the top-right of the page let you save your portfolio, or make changes to an existing one.
- Check the Current Portfolio Name
- The current name of your portfolio appears centered at the top of the screen.
- If it’s a new list and hasn’t been named, this area will be blank.
- Save a New List
- Click “Save New List”.
- Type the name you want to give the list and click “Go”.
- The name at the top of the screen will update to reflect the new list name.
- Rename an Existing List
- Click the “Rename” button.
- Enter the new name for the list and click “Go”.
- The name at the top of the screen will update to the new name.
- Save Changes to a List
- Click “Save Changes” to save any updates you’ve made to the current list.
Analyzing Stock Data
The Stock Analysis page in the Portfolio Analyzer provides a comprehensive evaluation of individual stocks using Equity Risk Sciences’ (ERS) proprietary methodologies. Users can navigate between different types of analysis to assess historical trends, future projections, and net present value (NPV) calculations.
- Stock Name & Symbol: Displays the full name and ticker symbol of the selected stock.
- View-Switch Buttons: Allows users to switch between ERS’s three primary analysis types—Historical Analysis, Future Analysis, and NPV Analysis—as well as access a summary and a PDF report download.
- Back Button: Provides a quick way to return to the Stock List page.
The Historical Analysis tab provides users with the stock’s current rating based on one of ERS’s proprietary risk ratings, highlighting its investment potential and risk. Additionally, it displays a detailed table of historical results for the stock, showing performance outcomes for past instances when it was rated A+, A, B, C, D, E or F. This enables users to evaluate the stock’s risk and return profile based on historical patterns.
- Letter Rating and Best Metric: Displays the stock’s letter rating (A+ to F), with A+ being the best. The metric used to determine this rating is identified (e.g., Equity Risk indicator™ (ERI)).
- Numeric Rating: Indicates the stock’s risk rating on a scale from 0 (best) to 100 (worst), providing a quantitative measure of its investment quality (e.g., ERI: 36).
- Price: Shows the current market price of the stock (e.g., $697.30).
- Historical Analysis Summary: ERS’s Historical Analysis evaluates past financial conditions to help investors make informed decisions by identifying patterns that have consistently led to gains while minimizing the risk of significant losses.
This table shows the historical probability and performance metrics for the selected stock, organized by its past ratings (A+ to F). It provides insights into the number of days the stock held each rating, average returns, gains, losses, and probabilities of success over different holding periods (6 months, 1 year, or 2 years).
- Holding Period Selector: These buttons allow the user to switch between 6-month, 1-year, or 2-year return studies, changing the holding period for the historical performance analysis.
- Rating Identifier: Displays the letter-grade rating (A+ to F) for each row, indicating the stock’s historical risk level during those periods.
- Days at Rating: The total number of trading days when the stock was assigned each specific rating.
- Average Return: The average 1-year return if an investor had invested $10,000 in the stock on each day it held that rating and held each investment for exactly 1 year.
- Average Gain: The average return for all investments that resulted in gains, calculated using the same rules as (11).
- Average Loss: The average return for all investments that resulted in losses, calculated using the same rules as (11).
- Probability of Gain: The percentage of 1-year investments made on days when the stock held this rating that resulted in a gain.
At the bottom of the page is a price chart showing the historical price performance of the selected stock over the past 1, 3, 5, or 10 years.
- These buttons allow the user to switch between a 1-year, 3-year, 5-year or 10-year view of the stock’s price history.
- When the user hovers their mouse over the chart, a tooltip appears displaying the price and rating of the stock at the corresponding date. This provides an interactive way to analyze the stock’s price movements and its associated ratings over time.