ERS’s Proof Table™ Shows the Value For Investing In NVIDIA When The V12 Was MOST Positive In The Past 25 Years
“We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns
that we would not expect to occur at random.”
James Simons Ph.D., founder of the Medallion Fund
Equity Risk Sciences follows the advice of James Simons and other great mathematicians.
With NVIDIA, we searched through 6,042 days of data, and we found anomalous patterns that we do not expect occurred at random. Do you?
Equity Risk Sciences has developed mathematical models that identify both significant risks and opportunities.
The Proof Table™ to the left demonstrates the profit an investor would have made if they bought the stock at each of the 6 different ratings categories between “A” and “F”.
NVIDIA investors who bought on the 215 days when ERS’s V12 rated “A” saw 100% profitable trades 12 months later, averaging 115% profit.
Subscribers would see this table on our website showing the months when the V12 was most favorable.
Subscribers would see this table on our website showing the days, within any month, when the V12 was most favorable.
The charts above illustrate a crucial and compelling truth: “Both Risks and Opportunities Can Be Quantified.”
- Once you recognize this as a fact, your focus shifts to measuring not just the potential rewards of stocks, but also their risks.
- You’ll aim to invest in stocks that offer not only the greatest opportunities but also the lowest probability of a significant loss.
- By doing so, you position yourself as an advisor who leads the way— not one who simply follows the crowd.
The Significance of These Charts and ERS’s Proof Table™
1) Charts: NVIDIA’s Market Cap vs. Relative Risk Ratings (2000–2025)
- The blue line represents NVIDIA’s market capitalization over time.
- The gray shaded area represents relative risk ratings—higher areas indicate periods of higher valuation risk.
Key Observations:
- Periods of high risk (tall gray areas) often correlate with significant stock price volatility.
- Low-risk periods (minimal gray shading) tend to precede sustained upward trends in stock price.
- Investors who avoided high-risk periods and entered during low-risk phases would have maximized gains while reducing exposure to potential declines.
2) Data Table: Proof Table™ for Metric V12 Ratings
- This table ranks Metric V12 ratings from A (best) to F (worst) based on 1-year average return and probability of gain.
- A-rated periods yielded the highest average 1-year return (115.4%) and a 100% probability of gain.
- As ratings decline from A to F, returns drop and risk of loss increases.
Key Takeaways:
- Higher-rated stocks consistently outperform lower-rated stocks, reinforcing the effectiveness of ERS’s risk analysis.
- Investors who followed ERS’s low-risk signals (A ratings) would have significantly outperformed those who invested blindly.
- The data quantifies risk objectively, demonstrating that ignoring risk ratings leads to lower returns and higher losses.
Overall Significance: These visuals and data validate the power of objective risk ratings in predicting stock performance. By avoiding high-risk periods and prioritizing stocks with strong ratings, investors can dramatically increase returns and reduce losses over time.
Call: Raymond Mullaney, CEO – Let’s have a conversation about how we can serve you and your firms goals.