User Guide

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The Decision Metrics tool allows you to analyze the statistical performance of ERS’s proprietary stock ratings over a customized time period.
Here’s how to use each section of the control panel:

Choose Your Stock and Date Range

• Start by entering the stock symbol you wish to analyze (e.g., AAPL).
• Start Date and End Date fields let you define the exact range of historical data to analyze.
• Use the calendar icons or type dates directly in MM/DD/YYYY format.

Or Select a Pre-Set Time Period

Don’t want to enter dates manually? Use one of the gray buttons to select a preset time range ending on the most recent trading day.
Choose from periods such as 3-Year, 5-Year, up to 40-Year to simplify the process.

Pick the Metrics to Analyze

You can select which ratings or metrics you’d like to include in your analysis. These are divided into three sections:

• Primary Ratings: These 4 core ERS ratings—PRI™, ERI™, FRR™, V1—are widely used across other tools and are ideal starting points.
• Additional Ratings: Includes 6 specialized metrics like FRI™, eLiq™, eStr™, eDur™, eVal™, FRN™ to further enhance your analysis.
• Valuation Metrics: Select from 4 traditional financial ratios: E1, E2, E4, E5 for added context.

Use the “All” or “None” buttons to quickly toggle selections in each row.

Advanced Grouping Options (Advanced Users Only)
Tip for beginners: Skip this section unless you’re doing detailed or custom research.

This section allows you to define how the analysis groups historical data points:

• Hold Periods: Specify holding durations in months (e.g., 6, 12, 24) to analyze returns over various timeframes.
• Group By: Choose between Nominal (absolute rating values) or Relative (ranked comparisons) for each metric.
• Categories: Determines how granular the data groupings will be (e.g., 7 groups by specific percentiles).

Reading the Results

When the analysis is complete, you will see a series of tables, each one corresponding to one of the ratings or metrics selected during setup. The table shows the historical probability and performance metrics of all trading days within the selected time period, divided into groups by their ratings from best to worst. It provides information on the number of days the stock held each rating, average returns and probabilities of success over different holding periods (6 months, 1 year, or 2 years).

• Rating Identifier: Displays the letter-grade rating (A+ to F) for each row, indicating the stock’s historical risk level during those periods.
• Days at Rating: The total number of trading days when the stock was assigned each specific rating.
• Average Return: The average return if an investor had invested $10,000 in the stock on each day it held that rating and held each investment for exactly 1 year.
• Probability of Gain: The percentage of trades made on days when the stock held this rating that resulted in a gain.

To switch between different holding periods, use the buttons at the top-right of this section.

Each table in the output displays the historical performance of the selected stock across different ERS ratings or metrics. Here’s how to interpret the information and colors:

Color Indicators:

• Green Rows: These highlight rating categories that historically produced higher probabilities of strong gains over the selected holding period.
  Example: In the PRI™ Rating column, the A+ row (in green) shows a 61.3% average 6-month return with a 100% probability of gain — a highly favorable risk-return profile.
• Red Rows: These highlight rating categories that historically resulted in a higher probability of loss.
  Example: In the FRR™ Rating column, the D row (in red) shows a -6.7% average return with only a 45% probability of gain, suggesting high risk.

At the top right of the results section, users can toggle between different views:

• Positive-Return Metrics: Filters the view to highlight ratings associated with the highest average returns and probabilities of gain.
• Negative-Return Metrics: Filters the view to identify rating categories with lower or negative average returns and higher risk of loss.
• All Groups: Displays the full spectrum of ratings, including neutral or rarely-used categories.

These views help users quickly identify which ERS metrics historically aligned with better or worse performance, making it easier to assess the statistical reliability of each rating.